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There is
a lot written about Forex market timing and traders are always
looking for greater accuracy in terms of timing there trading signals
- so let's look at better market timing in more detail.
The
first point to make is Forex markets move to probabilities and don't
move to certainties, this means there is no way of predicting where
prices may go next.
The
Myth of Prediction
There is
a big obsession with predicting market turns in advance and catching
market highs and lows but if you do try and predict with your Forex
trading strategy, you are simply hoping and guessing and your
predictions will end up as accurate as your horoscope.
Trading
When the Odds are at There Best
When
looking to time your trading signals, look to trade AFTER a trend
change has been confirmed in the market.
While
you won't catch the start of the move you will be entering the market
when the odds are at there best and you can focus on the great
profits ahead of you rather than the small bit of profit you have
missed. Always keep in mind, if you caught just 50% of every major
Forex trend, you would be making great profits.
So what
scenario's should you look for when timing the market?
Breakout
Trading
A great
way to trade is via breakouts, if you look at every major Forex trend
you will see it starts and continues by breaking to new market highs
and if you buy breaks of strong resistance levels, you can make huge
gains. Breakout trading is one of the most effective ways to get in
on trends and the method is one every Forex trader should be familiar
with.
The
Concept of Divergence
Any
trader who wants to time market reversals should look at the concept
of divergence. If a price is rising in a strong trend momentum will
also be rising, if momentum diverges from price it's an indication
that the trend maybe ready to turn.
To enter
wait for momentum to turn down and enter your trading signal –
don't anticipate a top wait for it to be confirmed. There are many
momentum indicators you can use but the more they are overbought in
historical terms, before the signal is given the better the odds are
on the trade.
Buying
Dips to Key Moving Averages
If you
have a strong trend and you want to get into it, you can wait for a
breakout but if the price is pulling back, you can also buy to a key
moving average.
Key
moving averages in strong trends are the 20 and 40 day MA's When a
price pulls back to these levels, look to buy into the trend
supported by a momentum turn up. Don't just buy the dip make sure the
trend change back up is confirmed.
Your
Aim – Make Money and Forget Perfection
When
trading currency markets forget about trying to catch the exact turn
of the market with your Forex trading system and always wait for the
move to be confirmed before entering. Your not interested in being
clever in Forex trading and being perfect – That's not possible
your interested in making money and by waiting for the move to be
confirmed you will be trading with the odds on your side and if you
have the odds on your side, you can enjoy long term Forex trading
success.
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