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This
article is all about, how to catch big trends and hold them. Big
trends in currencies can last for many weeks and can make huge
profits. Regular readers of this blog's daily forecast will have seen
us catch several big trends recently and here, I want to give you
some simple tips on how to make more money in less time. Here are the
top ten tips for trading in 30 minutes a day.
You
don't get rewarded for working hard in Forex trading you get rewarded
for being right and this means being patient and trading less. So how
let's look at how to catch big trends
1.
Use Weekly Charts
The
weekly charts help you see longer term trends better and they also
are great for establishing support and resistance. Look at the weekly
chart and if the support or resistance levels line up, it makes the
daily levels more valid in terms of holding or breaking which
increases your odds of success.
2.
Do NOT Look for Perfect Market Timing
When
following big trends a few ticks difference is irrelevant. Simply
look to get in a trade when the odds are good and don't stall your
trade over a few pips in case you miss the move. Perfect market
timing is one of the biggest myths of Forex - as famous trader Jim
Rogers says "he's a terrible market timer" but how much money does he
make? Huge profits.
3.
Stops Need to Protect but Beware of Clusters
I
have worked as a broker and know that most retail traders tend to put
stops to close and you will often see them just a few ticks behind an
important level of support in an up trend.
What
tends to happen is - these stops are picked off as the market falls
below the support level and then, the market immediately reverses and
goes up!
Most
traders are trading with 10 or 20 pip stops, because there looking
for small profits and of course they lose. The savvy trader will use
a 100 pip stops, so his stop is behind a “stop cluster” but
still has excellent risk to reward, because he's looking for a
thousand pips or more in profit.
4.
Use Breakouts
We
all like to sell into a high or buy a low but the most effective way
of trading Forex is via breakouts. When an important level of
resistance or support is taken out go with the break. Sure you don't
buy an exact low or sell an exact high, as the trend is in motion but
the odds are on your side and that means the trend is likely to
continue.
If
you get a break in price which adheres to the following principle,
then its likely to be an excellent trade.
5.
Use The Heisenberg Principle
This
is a principle that if you learn it, it will make you more alert to
trading opportunities and give you greater concentration on
The
more unexpected a price break is the more likely it is to continue
than reverse and this makes the signal more powerful and the logic
was neatly summed up by Bruce Kovner in “Market
Wizards”. Here he makes reference to the Heisenberg principle in
physics which postulates:
“if
something is closely observed, the odds are it is going be altered in
the process” (Heisenberg principle in physics)
Translated
into plain English terms this means - when know one expects the event
and can see no logical reason behind it, the odds of trading the
break are far higher than when they do. The
concept behind this is “The Less Observed, the better the trade”
so when a breakout or reversal occurs which no one is expecting and
it's uncomfortable for you to trade - go with it.
Trading
is all about being aware of crowd psychology and learning to go
opposite to the majority at the right time and if you understand the
above, you will be able to take the trades others don't do.
6.
50 - 50 Rule
If
for example, a market becomes overbought in a bull market – bank it
regardless of how bullish the news is (see the previous point!) and
then wait for a dip to put it back in.
If
you do this you are active within the long term trend, you can get
profits in the bank to cushion you against any adverse move. This
method of trading is great for smoothing your equity curve when
following long term trends that can continue for weeks or months on
end.
7.
Forget Perfection Focus on Money
Don't
think what might have been focus on what you have. At all times focus
on playing great defence and protect what you have at all costs. Many
traders think there is some way to beat the market but that's not
possible and never will be so you need to trade with discipline and
take losses cheerfully.
8.
Avoid the Outcome Bias
Traders
are happy when they win but get sad when they lose and think they did
something wrong so they keep journals and look at past trades and
chop and change systems but the pro trader sees losing as just part
of the game of trading Forex and doesn't dwell on or think about
losses.
9.
Be Prepared to Change Your View Quickly
Don't
fall in love with trades! Be prepared to reverse your view, many
traders stay in trades and think because they entered them put a stop
and a target they should leave them and see how they turn out.
Markets are forever changing so don't hesitate to simply take a trade
out the market if you no longer feel comfortable with it.
Use
Indicators Sparingly
I
like indicators as they give me a view of how overbought or oversold
the market is but I don't use to many – just 3, to give me an idea
of strength of price and how overbought or oversold the market is.
Many traders chop and change indicators and use to many – if you
use indicators use them consistently and only use a few
Final
Words
When
trading big trends, you don't need to trade many times and you don't
need to spend much time on your trading 30 minutes a day is fine and
if you understand and apply the above tips you will make bigger
profits and spend less time on your trading.
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