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Traders
are always looking for greater accuracy with their trading signals,
so they can make bigger FX profits but the accuracy myth, is one of
the biggest causes of trading losses. This may sound paradoxical
because surely, if your trading accuracy is better, your profits will
be bigger? Let's take a look at why this is not the case.
I
know a famous trader who doesn't get in at the very start of trends
nor does he bank out anywhere near the highs. Furthermore, he losses
70% of the time, so he's not to accurate but does he make money? Yes
and it's a compound annual gain of 77%, over 5 years which is up
there with the very best - so why does lack of accuracy not affect
his trading?
Buy
Low Sell High is not a Good Strategy to Use to to Make Money
Most
traders believe, that to make money in FX trading they need to buy
low and sell high. These currency traders become obsessed with
getting in and out of the market, at the exact turning point so, they
try to predict where these lows and highs might be.
The
problem of course is of course, that FX price movement cannot be
predicted. You will get a lot of people telling you that prices move
to some higher order or that scientific theories work - but they
don't. Forex prices cannot be predicted, as humans are emotional
beings and not beings of logic and this makes Forex trading a market
where you no certainty of what might happen next. Forex trading is
all about trading the odds and nothing more but if you learn to trade
the odds, you can win.
You
have probably heard the old technical analysis saying, “a trend in
motion is more likely to continue than reverse” and it's true. If
you want to trade with the odds on your side, you should WAIT, until
a trend is confirmed BEFORE, you get on board. You may have missed
the very start of the trend but that doesn't matter, if there is
thousands of dollars in profit ahead of you.
The
smart trader realizes that, you should never execute your trading
signals on prediction, you should wait for confirmation of the move –
Why? Because, this puts the odds on your side and with the odds on
your side, you can win.
The
Concept of Running Profits and Cutting Losses
The
ratio of winners to losers doesn't matter, what does matter is the
profit your winning trades make in relation to what your losing
trades lose. For example, if you have a $10,000 account and have 4
trades that lose $250.00 each and you have one winning trade which
makes $2,000.00, you have covered your losses and made an overall
gain with your FX trading system. This is despite losing four trades
and winning only one! That's only a 20% success ratio but that
doesn't matter, you have made money and profits are the criteria you
are judged on.
There
are many different ways to make money but all good trading
strategies, will have sound money management to keep losses small and
have the courage to hold onto long term gains.
If
You Don't Kick at Goal You Won't Score
If
you ask any great football striker they will all tell you to score a
goal you have to have a shot on goal and they will tell you their not
afraid to miss. The reason for this is they know they can't score
every kick on goal but their not afraid to miss, because they are
confident in their ability, to find the back of the net and the more
times they try, the better the odds of them scoring are likely to be
If
you are confident in your trading strategy, the number of losses
don't matter - the relationship of the profit per trade on winners to
the loss per trade on losers, is the most important criteria and this
has nothing to do with trading accuracy.
Don't
Seek Perfection Focus on Making Money
Today
with the rise of the online trading, many vendors selling trading
trading systems, claim they can predict the future and make you huge
gains and furthermore, many claim 95% accuracy or more on their
trades. These claims are not true and the only way these vendors can
show profits is by back tested, simulations knowing all the closing
prices.
When
you trade Forex forget about, trying to predict the exact low or high
or counting the winning trades to losing trades you have. Instead,
focus on getting the odds on your side and making sure the ratio of
your winners to your losers is wide enough to give you profits, you
may bit be perfect but you can still make a lot of money.
So
trading signal accuracy is not important, what you need to focus on
is money in the bank.
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