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If
you want to be a successful FX trader you need to understand the
concept of Forex volatility and it's impact on prices but the fact is
most new traders don't understand the concept of Forex volatility
trading but if you do, you can gain an edge which can
lead you to bigger Forex profits.
To understand
volatility you need to understand standard deviation of price greater
detail – so what is standard deviation of price? Let's define it
Standard
Deviation of Price Defined
Standard deviation is
a statistical term that provides an indication of the volatility of
any price and that includes Forex prices and measures how widely
values (closing prices) are dispersed from the mean average.
Dispersion is defined as the difference between the actual value
(closing price) and the average value (mean closing price).
Therefore, the bigger
the difference is between the closing prices and the average price,
the higher the standard deviation or volatility of the currency pair
you are studying will be. On the other hand,the closer the closing
prices are to the average mean price, the lower the standard
deviation and the volatility of the currency pair will be.
Standard deviation is
calculated by taking the square root of the variance, the average of
the squared deviations from the mean
So
What Use is Standard Deviation for Forex Traders?
Here
are some of the advantages an understanding of standard deviation can
give you in terms of increasing the profits of any currency trading
strategy.
Spotting
Major Tops and Bottoms
Major tops and bottoms
in any financial market are accompanied by high volatility as
investors reflect the psychology of greed or fear and push prices to
far to quickly, before prices come back to more realistic levels. All
short term price spikes don't last long and while they can be used to
spot major tops and bottoms, they can also be used to spot:
Overbought or
Oversold Levels in Relation to the Prevailing Trend
Any trend as it
evolves, will see short term price spikes to overbought or oversold
levels and then, prices will come back to the trend line. If you
understand volatility and use moving averages to spot fair value in
relation to the trend, you can sell when prices become over bought
and buy back, to a fair value moving average.
Changes
From Low Volatility to High Volatility
If a market is trading
in a tight range, volatility will tend to be low but when it breaks
from the range and volatility increases, it can used as a warning
sign that a new trend is about to start and traders can use their
technical analysis to look to enter trading signals.
The
Perfect Volatility Indicator – Bollinger Bands
If
you want a visual tool you can use to spot standard deviation of
price, then you should check out Bollinger Bands. This is a very
effective indicators which can be used to see how volatile a Forex
pair is and can be used to set up some high reward low risk trades
which can be confirmed by other Forex trading indicators.
If
want to win with your Forex trading system, you need to understand
standard deviation of price and if you do, you will find that it will
enhance your profit potential and reduce risk which is something all
FX traders want to achieve.
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