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John Murphy Trading Techniques |
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Written by Andrew11
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Sunday, 04 April 2010 |
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John
Murphy, a leader in the technical analysis of financial markets and
has drawn upon his thirty years of experience in the field to develop
ten basic laws of technical trading, these key points define the key
tools of technical analysis and how to use them to identify buying
and selling opportunities and below are his rules which are basic of
course but most traders don't practice them in their trading
strategies.
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Map
the Trends
Always
start by looking at the bigger picture – even if you like to trade
short term study the market over the longer term and start off with
monthly and weekly charts and then go to daily and intra- day
charts.
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Spot
the Trend and Go With It
always
determine the prevailing trend and follow it. Market trends can be
long-term, intermediate-term and short-term. Decide which one you're
going to trade and use the appropriate chart. Always trade the
trend! This means you buy dips if the trend is up and conversely,
Sell rallies if the trend is down.
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Find
the Low and High of It
Find
support and resistance levels and use them to enter trading signals
The best place to buy a market is near support levels which is
usually a previous reaction low. The best place to sell a market is
near resistance levels and this is usually a previous peak. After a
resistance peak has been broken, it will normally provide support so
the old "high" becomes the new low. Conversely, when a
support level has been broken, it will usually produce selling on
subsequent rallies – the old "low" can become the new
"high."
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Know
How Far to Backtrack
Market
corrections up or down usually retrace a significant portion of the
previous trend. You can measure the corrections in an existing trend
in percentages. A fifty 50% retracement of a prior trend is very
common and a minimum retracement is usually around 33% of the prior
trend. The maximum retracement is usually 75%. By knowing how far
the market retraces you can decide on entry and exit points.
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Draw
the Line
Draw
trend lines and trade in the direction of the trend - Trend lines
are one of the simplest but most effective of all charting tools and
you should always draw them. Up trend lines are drawn along two
successive lows. Down trend lines are drawn along two successive
peaks. Breaking of trend lines of course signals a possible change
in trend. A valid trend line should be touched at least three times
and the longer a trend line is in terms of duration of time and the
more times it has been tested, the more important a break becomes.
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Follow
That Average
Follow
moving averages which can if used correctly provide objective buy
and sell signals and tell you if existing trend is still in motion
and can help confirm a trend change. Popular combinations are 4- and
9-day moving averages, 9- and 18-day, 5- and 20-day. Signals are
generated when the shorter average line crosses the longer one.
Another average which is popular is the 40 day MA and crosses above
or below can signal the end of an existing trend or the start of a
new one.
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Learn
the Turns
Track
oscillators. Oscillators help identify overbought and oversold
conditions in the market, while moving averages offer confirmation
of a market trend change, oscillators often can help warn in advance
that a market has become overbought or oversold an is due a turn.
Popular oscillators are the RSI (By Welles Wilder) and the
stochastic indicator ( by George Lane)
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Know
the Warning Signs
Trade
MACD. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (
by Gerald Appel) combines a moving average crossover system with the
overbought/oversold elements of an oscillator. A buy signal occurs
when the faster line crosses above the slower and both lines are
below zero. A sell signal takes place when the faster line crosses
below the slower from above the zero line.
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Trend
or Not a Trend?
Use
ADX. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) line is yet
another indicator from Wells Wilder and is used to determine whether
a market is trending or is in a period of consolidation.
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Know
the Confirming Signs
Volume
and open interest are important confirming indicators in markets as
volume precedes price. It's important to ensure that heavier volume
is taking place in the direction of the prevailing trend. In an up
trend, heavier volume should be seen on up days. Rising open
interest confirms that new money is supporting the existing trend.
Summary
"My
work has gotten better due to simplifying my approach," John J.
Murphy
John
Murphy was the technical analyst for CNBC-TV for seven years on the
popular show "Tech Talk" and has written three best-selling
books and all are considered classics by traders worldwide.
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Technical
Analysis of the Futures Markets
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Intermarket
Technical Analysis
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The
Visual Investor.
Many
traders consider Murphy's book, "Technical Analysis of the
Futures Markets" to be the bible of technical analysis and this
book is essential reading for any trader novice or pro.
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