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Breakout
trading is a timeless way to trade because - all the big trends start
from breakouts and as the trend evolves, the market continually will
make new highs in a bullish trend. Of course not every breakout will
be successful, you need to be selective in the ones you choose and
here, we will look at how to make your breakout trading strategy more
effective.
Here
are some general rules, you can use in your breakout trading system
to help you make it more effective:
- The More Tests the
Better the Odds
You
should always trade breaks of strong levels of resistance and while
the minimum number of tests is two look to trade 4- 6 as a minimum or
even more.
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The Wider the Tests are in Terms of Time the Better
Not
only should there be several tests the wider they are spaced apart in
terms of time the better the odds, the break will be sustained once
the break occurs. For example 7 tests within 1 month is generally not
as good, as 6 tests with two of the tests being at least a few weeks
or even a few months apart in terms of duration. This shows that the
supply and demand situation is changing over the long term which is a
much powerful trading signal, than if they change within a short
period of time.
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If the Crowd Doesn't Expect it Trade it
In
terms of breakouts from a period of congestion, it's best to trade
breaks, which the majority of people can't see a reason for the break
happening. If this scenario occurs its probably going to be a good
high odds break. If most people see a break coming and its heavily
featured in the media, it will be less likely the breakout will be
sustained.
Bruce
Kovner one of the true greats of currency trading explains this
concept in the classic investment book “Market Wizards” where he
refers to the Heisenberg principle in physics which says:
“if
something is closely observed, the odds are it is going to be altered
in the process” If a market breaks when know one expects it the
odds are therefore far higher than when they do.
So
in conclusion - if a breakout feels uncomfortable to do and the vast
majority of people think it shouldn't be happening, you should be
trading it!
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Look for Breakouts in Cross Rates
Don't
just look for breakouts in the major currency pairs – the cross
rates can very often provide the best opportunities and the reason
for this is - there is simply less speculative interest in the
crosses and as Bruce Kovner says again in his interview in the book
Market Wizards: “The
General Rule is - “The Less Observed, the better the trade”
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Use Momentum Indicators to Confirm the Velocity of Price
The
velocity of price change should be accelerating as the break occurs,
as this shows fresh buying is occurring or stops are being hit, as
the resistance level is taken out. You can use some momentum
indicators to check this out and good ones to use are the RSI, the
Stochastic and the MACD.
Final
Words
If
you use a breakout trading strategy or are are considering using one,
the above tips will help you hit high odds trading signals and make
bigger profits. Breakout trading is a timeless way to make money and
always will be as long as currency markets trend and that will never
change in a free market economy.
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