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f
you are looking to buy a currency trading system or build one of your
own, the key to the systems success will be its money management
rules. There are many different ways to make money but there is a
sure fire way to lose it and that's to under estimate money
management. Here we will give you some facts you need to understand
about money management before trading any system.
Lets
look at some basic facts about money management which many new
traders in particular fail to understand.
Forex
Trading is a Game of Odds not Certainties
You
will see a lot of currency trading systems which claim they can
predict the future but this is rubbish – markets are made by humans
and you simply cannot predict what they might do however because
human nature remains constant, you do get high odds trading scenarios
you can trade for profit.
When
trading Forex you need to think like a professional poker player –
while you cannot know exactly which cards might come out the deck
next you can calculate the odds and if you can do that you can win,
providing your losses are smaller than your profits. Now lets look at
a common myth which involves the percentage of winning trades a
system has is important – it's not.
The
Percentage of Losing trades You Have is Irrelevant
The
percentage of winning trades a system has has no bearing on the
systems profit potential its the difference between the size of the
losses v the size of the profits which is important. You will see
lots of Forex robots claiming they can trade with over 95% accuracy
but this is laughable – the best traders in the world, tend to make
money winning just 30 – 50% of the time and I know of systems that
lose 70% of the time but still make huge gains due to the fact, the
profits of the system are far bigger than the losses.
So
if building a system or following one, the number of winners v the
number of losers is not relevant – its bottom line profits which
are.
The
Bigger the Gain the Bigger the Draw down
If
you are trading to make 20% per annum the draw down will be less than
if you are trading to make a 100% - with big gains comes big draw
down and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. With risk goes reward,
the bigger the risk the bigger the reward. If you recover draw down
and make money long term but most traders find sitting on draw down
hard.
Typically,
if a system makes 30% per annum expect a draw down of up to 20% and
if a system makes 100% the draw down at some points will be 30 - 50%
Always
check Worst Peak to Valley Draw down
When
following a system always assume that you joined it at the worst
possible time and that means looking at the worst peak to valley draw
down and then looking at the time to recovery. If you do this, you
are taking a worst case scenario and can see if you are mentally
prepared to take and stick with your system.
Final
Words
When
trading a system you must have confidence in it and be able to follow
it through periods of draw down and the basic facts above will give
you an idea of what to expect in terms of draw down. Money management
is the the key to the success of any system but this doesn't mean you
won't have losses – you will but you can see from the above, that
accepting losing periods and even more losing trades than winners,
doesn't mean that you can't win long term with a system you can - but
you must be prepared for the reality of losses.
Learning
to accept losses and following a system with discipline is one of the
key traits on achieving long term currency trading success with ANY
system you use.
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