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There
are many Forex trading systems and robots sold today which allow you
to change the settings of the system to trade different conditions
but the logic this is based on is flawed and we will look at why in
this article.
What
many Forex robot vendors do is - construct track records using simulations across back
data and when they do this, they want to produce the best track record
they can. They do this by bending the rules of the system to fit the data then,
to improve performance even more, they then make different rules for
different trading conditions. So the system is curve fitted to the data and there is a problem with this...
The
Dangers of Back Testing or Curve Fitting
In
hindsight, its easy to see the change between range bound markets and
trending ones but when you are actually trading for real its not so
easy to spot these periods and of course, when they change . As no
data sequence ever repeats the same again, the system get hammered in
real time trading and the user ends up losing his money – trading
in hindsight is easy, as you know where all the highs and lows are
but when you don't have this data at hand, trading live is far
harder.
These
systems which try and use two different systems, within a system are
doomed to failure. If you see a system with unique rules for
individual currencies or for different trading conditions, avoid it
as it will fail to make money in real time trading.
Rules
to Trade ALL market Conditions
Any
currency trading system, should trade all currencies and all market
conditions with the same set of rules.
The
reason for this is it will be more robust and more likely to make you
money, as it will have fewer rules, too many rules in a system,
leaves it with to many elements to break.
You
Can't Beat the Market but You Can Make Money
In
today's world of high performance computers and software with awesome
number crunching ability, there is a tendency for traders to look for
order in back testing when there is actually none. Because Forex
markets are made by humans, who are not logical but emotional beings,
there is no scientific order; FX markets remain a game of odds, not a
game of certainties and this means you can't beat the market.
While
you can't beat the market, if you have a system based upon sound
logic and strong money management to keep losses small in periods of
draw down you can make a lot of money over the long term and while
your Forex trading software can lose in the short term, you can make
great gains longer term.
Judge
your systems performance over years rather than weeks or months and
your patience will be rewarded; trading currencies is not about
trying to be perfect, its about making money and you can do that with
a simple currency trading software package and tight money
management.
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