Currency Trading Software – Using Different Settings for Range Bound and Trending Markets PDF Print E-mail
Written by Andrew11   
Wednesday, 14 July 2010

There are many Forex trading systems and robots sold today which allow you to change the settings of the system to trade different conditions but the logic this is based on is flawed and we will look at why in this article.

 

What many Forex robot vendors do is -  construct track records using simulations across back data and when they do this, they want to produce the best track record they can. They do this by bending the rules of the system to fit the data then, to improve performance even more, they then make different rules for different trading conditions. So the system is curve fitted to the data and there is a problem with this...


The Dangers of Back Testing or Curve Fitting


In hindsight, its easy to see the change between range bound markets and trending ones but when you are actually trading for real its not so easy to spot these periods and of course, when they change . As no data sequence ever repeats the same again, the system get hammered in real time trading and the user ends up losing his money – trading in hindsight is easy, as you know where all the highs and lows are but when you don't have this data at hand, trading live is far harder.


These systems which try and use two different systems, within a system are doomed to failure. If you see a system with unique rules for individual currencies or for different trading conditions, avoid it as it will fail to make money in real time trading.


Rules to Trade ALL market Conditions


Any currency trading system, should trade all currencies and all market conditions with the same set of rules.


The reason for this is it will be more robust and more likely to make you money, as it will have fewer rules, too many rules in a system, leaves it with to many elements to break.


You Can't Beat the Market but You Can Make Money


In today's world of high performance computers and software with awesome number crunching ability, there is a tendency for traders to look for order in back testing when there is actually none. Because Forex markets are made by humans, who are not logical but emotional beings, there is no scientific order; FX markets remain a game of odds, not a game of certainties and this means you can't beat the market.


While you can't beat the market, if you have a system based upon sound logic and strong money management to keep losses small in periods of draw down you can make a lot of money over the long term and while your Forex trading software can lose in the short term, you can make great gains longer term.


Judge your systems performance over years rather than weeks or months and your patience will be rewarded; trading currencies is not about trying to be perfect, its about making money and you can do that with a simple currency trading software package and tight money management.

Last Updated ( Wednesday, 14 July 2010 )
 
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