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Friday 06/12/2012 2.00PM GMT 3.00PM CET
The
payroll number today was above consensus but not by much but it is
showing the US Economy is making progress albeit slowly on the jobs
front which has been a major problem over the last few years.
Employment
grew solidly last month and the jobless rate dropped to a near
three-year low of 8.5 percent. Non farm payrolls were at 200,000 for
December above expectations for a 150,000 rise. There were some
adjustments though to previous numbers.
The
unemployment rate dropped from a revised 8.7 percent in November,
which was previously reported as 8.6 percent. The jobless rate is now
the lowest since February 2009. the payrolls for October and November
was revised to show 8,000 fewer jobs created than previously reported
but overall a solid report which reinforces the view that while other
nations slow up, the US is making slow and steady progress.
So
What does the Number Mean for the $Dollar?
Our
view is a “normal time” this number would be bullish for risk
currencies but not any more - its solid if unspectacular and with the
Euro zone fiscal crisis still ongoing, there will be no big move to
risk assets.
The
Euro and risk currencies have gently sold off but we will today or
Monday see some counter trend action, due to the oversold condition
and in light of this, we have cut our dollar longs by 50%. If a rally
does occur in the risk currencies – its a great opportunity to load
up on dollar longs.
We
remain firm dollar bulls and looking to buy the dips.
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