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Which
is the best currency pair to trade? In this article we will look at
the criteria on choosing the best currency to trade and give you some
insight on how to make bigger profits from your FX trading portfolio.
Most
currency trading advice online in terms of the best currencies to
trade will focus on the Euro or Yen against the Dollar and the logic
is based on the fact that these currency pairs have the most volume
and therefore, have the lowest spreads but there is more to the best
currency to trade than volume and spreads.
In
fact, there is no best single currency to trade the best pair changes
all the time in light of market conditions and in terms of spreads
the difference between a 1 pip spread and a 3 pip spread if you are
swing trading or long term trend following, this will not impact
significantly on your profit potential at all. While many traders
like to day trade or scalp the market, this is not a good way of
trading in any pair – al you do is trade the noise of the markets –
you can get the odds on your side and that means you will lose.
Lets
look at the characteristics of the major currencies and cross rates
and how you can make profits in any of the currency pairs below.
The
Major Currencies
The
Dollar v the Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc, British Pound - all offer good
liquidity and spreads with the Euro and Yen offering the most
liquidity as we have said and they also offer excellent long term
trends but the disadvantage of trading these currencies can be, the
speculative interest is so high and this means volatility can also be
high, trading conditions can be choppy seeing many trades hit on
stop, as the markets spike either up or down.
The
Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar are another two good majors to
trade and while spreads may be wider than the above currencies, these
currencies offer excellent long term trends and offer position
traders some great opportunities.
Trading
Cross Rates for Bigger Profits
Rather
than just focusing on trading pairs which are against the Dollar, you
should also trade cross rates.
Cross
rates can have higher spreads but can very often provide the best
opportunities and the reason for this is there is simply less
speculative interest in them. “The General Rule is - “The Less
Observed, the better the trade is likely to be. For example, if most
traders see a trend coming and its heavily featured in the media and
news wires it will be less likely the trade will go as the majority
expect.
To
explain this in “Market Wizards” Bruce Kovner one of the true FX
trading greats explains this by referring to the Heisenberg principle
in physics which states:
“If
something is closely observed, the odds are it is going to be altered
in the process” If a market breaks when know one expects it the
odds are therefore far higher than when they do.
If
you think about this, it's logical as 95% of traders lose money!
Trade
the Best Trends Where Ever they Occur
In
terms of trading currency pairs, you need to pay attention to the
following two points and if you do you will have the best currency to
trade at a particular window in time.
The
Currency Pair Doesn't Matter the Potential for Profit Does
Look
at all pairs for opportunities, don't restrict yourself yo just one
favourite pair because if you do you will be
missing opportunities for profit.
Trade
Only Markets Which Are Moving
If
for example, a currency is making a bottom it can go sideways for a
long time, so to avoid speculating
money
and tying it up for long periods of time, wait for signs that the
market is changing from bearish to bullish or vice versa before
trading it. If you get in to early you might have to wait a long time
and see little return on your trade.
Final
Words
If
you currency trading strategy is soundly based, it can make money
trading any currency and the best currency will very often change
from time to time so keep your eye on all the majors and the cross
rates and focus on the best opportunities in ANY currency, in terms
of profit potential presented to you.
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