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Fundamental analysis
concerns itself with the causes of price movements and facts which
move them, relative to the supply and demand situation. In currency
trading, these fundamentals are what drive the big trends which can
last for many week, months or years.
Someone who studies
the fundamentals will look at the general economic health of the
country which is reflected in it's currency and also political news
which affects confidence in the country and also the economy.
Big
Trends in FX are Driven by The Fundamentals
Its a fact that over
the long term the fundamentals play a key role in terms of currency
direction and this can be seen in the fact that currencies trade long
term and these trends can be for many months or years and are a
reflection of the health of the economy they represent. Of course
markets do not move logically.
If it were as easy to trade
successfully, as just following the news a lot more traders would
win than they do and it's a fact that currencies can collapse when
the news is most bullish and rally, when it's at its most bearish and
this is true, in any financial market.
Greed
and Fear and Short Term Price Spikes
While the
fundamentals do play a role in the value of a currency long term; in
the short term the emotion of traders comes into play. We all have
the same facts to look at but we all draw our own conclusions from
them and our view is coloured by the emotions of greed and fear.
In the short term
emotion is the key factor which moves prices and they will spike to
far either up or down in response to this. A close look at currency
trading charts, will show you that these price spikes don't last long
and prices quickly come back to fair value which is a reflection of
the fundamentals.
Combining
Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Fundamental analysis
can be hard for new currency traders and that's why many traders use
charts instead - but as the fundamentals do play a key role in price
movement the trader who learns to read them correctly can make a lot
of money.
On a personal level,
I like to look at the long term fundamentals behind the big trends
and then, use technical analysis to time entry and exit points. Most
of the world's top traders do this and if you do it too, you can
make some great currency trading profits.
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