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Bill Lipschutz was the
biggest currency trader in the world during the 1980s and in his
eight-year career with Salomon Brothers, he generated more than half
a billion dollars
in profits trading currencies.
Lipschutz helped
create the Salomon Brothers FX department which was the most
important player in the market when he was there. With an ability to
manage risk and call FX markets correctly, he once had 16 positive
months in a row. At this time, he turned over half of the
currency-option volume on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange and was on
many occasions, responsible for up to 80% of the open interest on
the market.
Trading
Strategy
Bill
Lipschutz has had his fair share of losses and like the all the great
traders, he's learned from them. One of them involved his personal
account, in which he lost $250,000, which he had taken five years to
build, in a matter of days, the effect was to tighten up risk
control.
Risk
Control
Also, he began to
adopt better risk control strategies. Which would include not placing
the entire trading capital into one single trade, or even into trades
which are highly correlated. Also, analyze the risk / reward ratio at
the current point in time and NOT at the point when the trade was
first taken. All the great traders know how to manage risk and many
of the greatest traders have been taught by the pain of taking a big
loss. If you want to win at Forex trading, strong money management is
the foundation any successful strategy is based on.
The
Importance of the Fundamentals
“I
don’t trade on dreams or rumors. I’m a fundamental trader. I try
to assemble facts and decide what kind of scenario I think will
unfold.” Bill Lipschutz, Market Wizards
Its
the fundamentals which drive the big trends and Bill had the
discipline to follow his basic strategy of placing trades only when
the fundamentals are favorable and he will study all the facts to
determine a justification for a trade before placing it in the
market. This may sound simple but most traders don't have the ability
to study the facts and work out there impact on prices.
The
Importance of Trend Following
Big trends last a long
time and you can see big trends in any currency pair which last for
many weeks, months or even years and Lipshutz commented:
"It is well
acknowledged that the most profitable market environment for FX
[foreign exchange] trading is a trend – in particular a trend that
unfolds over a medium-to long-term time horizon,"
Lipschutz identifies
big trends and then tries to ride them to their conclusion but of
course all traders want to do this but there is a major problem which
all currency traders face when trend following and that's deciding
exactly when a trend may end and also, staying with it during counter
reactions – is the counter reaction a trend change or just a
reaction within the trend? If you want to win at FX trading you need
to know.
Holding
Positive Carry
Another
simple idea he uses is the carry trade...
"A key to
profiting from a trend is the ability to stay in the trade and not be
shaken out during periods of price consolidation or correction,” So
what's Lipschutz's solution to this problem we all face?
His solution is to
"hold positive carry" so what is it and why does it make
trend following easier?
When you make any
currency trade, you obviously exchange one currency relative to
another and it's more than likely, the two currencies will have
different interest rates.
To "hold positive
carry," all you have to remember is to exchange a currency with
a low interest rate for a currency with a high interest rate and
benefit from the interest rate differential.
Life
After Salomon Brothers
Lipschutz left Salomon
Brothers in 1990 at the age of just 36 but soon He eventually formed
Hathersage Capital Management which during the the 1998 Asian
financial crisis, when panic took hold of the yen market, Lipschutz
cleaned up and was up 42 percent for the year year. Over the past 15
years, Hathersage has made an 18.8 percent average annual return and
only one in one month period did losses exceed 5%.
Books
YOU Can read a must
read interview will him in the classic New
Market Wizards: Conversations with America’s Top Traders,
by Jack D. Schwager, 1992.
Final
Words
This
quote probably sums up why Lipschutz is one of the greatest traders
the FX world has ever seen.
"It's the
intricacies of the game itself that drive me," he says.
"It's
about getting up every day and trying to figure out how to beat the
market. That's an ongoing fascination that, in its purest form, never
changes.”
Bill Lipschutz not
only is a great trader, he was driven to be one of the best traders
and it's obvious he loves the challenge of what he does. His status
in the industry was reflected by his induction into the Traders Hall
of Fame and he is acknowledged as one of the best FX traders of all
time.
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